Iran: Israel's 'Baptism of Fire'

First published 20/5/18:
http://jwaverfpolicy.blogspot.com/2018/05/iran-israels-baptism-of-fire-into-full.html


Pundits often said that the options with Iran were a nuclear deal or war. They may be right - but if so, it is unlikely to be US troops on the ground fighting it.

The American public are exhausted of war. President Donald Trump won his historic presidential campaign on an anti-war platform, including lambasting the "big, fat mistake" of the Iraq War. If the Iraq War was a big fat mistake for the US, an Iran war would be one of the biggest, fattest US conflicts since the Second World War.

In 2013, when Congress voted whether or not to strike the Syrian government, the American public were overwhelmingly against it. Since then, anti-war sentiment in the United States has not grown weaker but stronger.

So with a war-weary America, why has President Trump pulled out of the Iran Deal and made war with Iran more likely? Because though he cannot fight this war with current public support, he also knows he is not expected to by his closest ally Israel - except as a last resort.

Israel, on the other hand, is ready for war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been granted overwhelming war powers, giving him the ability to wage war without a cabinet vote. Israel is also being welcomed into the Arab fold by countries Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE in particular, with an Israeli-Palestinian deal pending before full relations begin.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's rhetoric against Iran and its nuclear deal has culminated in Israel and Iran engaging in a series of military strikes in Syria. Yet with the risk of nuclear proliferation from Iran looming, Premier Netanyahu is unlikely to focus Israel's efforts on striking Iran's proxies. The Prime Minister has been known for having a "go at it alone" approach in Middle-East affairs, such as when he went to the House of Representatives in Washington to condemn the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, against President Obama's wishes.

In a conflict with Iran, Israel would not only have the political support of the United States (which Israel did not have under President Obama) but Israel would also be supported by many of its Arab neighbours. In fact, an Israeli war with Iran may just be the "baptism of fire" required by the Arab states to prove that Israel can vouch for their security. With the rise of Turkey as another adversary to Arab determinism in the Middle-East and beyond, Israel is more likely to garner Arab support should it prove itself by militarily intervening against the enemies of the Arabs, such as Iran.

In such a context, perhaps it is understood by both President Trump and Premier Netanyahu that, in the advent of an Iran War, an Iran-Israeli conflict is the best case scenario for the US, Israel and the wider Middle-East: President Trump would not embroil the US in another costly Middle-East conflict, Israel would prove itself capable of protecting its Arab neighbours, and Israeli-Arab relations would soar.

Since its initial fight for survival, the nation of Israel has come a long way with its Arab neighbours. Because of this, the fury of the Israeli military may soon, with Arab support, be directed against Iran, a stark and historic contrast to previous conflicts.